My good friend and I have tried to talk once every two weeks for the last couple of years. The intent was to use that time to brainstorm and pursue business ideas. While we’ve thought of several ones, none have stuck so far. It’s challenging to lock in on something that would require a grand level of effort. Given he’s a gainfully employed partner in a global consulting company and all of my shortcomings, our time is limited. So, we usually catch up on what’s happening with each other and discuss current events.
During our last conversation, which was when the 2022 Winter Olympics was still ongoing, I mentioned to him that Russia would likely invade Ukraine after its conclusion because of the Communist brotherhood. I strongly thought that it wouldn’t happen before the opening ceremony or as the Olympics was taking place knowing how important the event was to President Xi. Putting the whole host city bidding process aside, seeing both President Xi and President Putin together at the opening ceremony made the brotherhood that much more obvious.
For President Xi, unfortunately, Russia had taken a lot of shine away from China anyway, at least internationally. If mass media wasn’t busy speculating on a Russian invasion of Ukraine, the talk was about Russian figure skater Kamila Valieva and what came of her positive test for banned substances. He probably thinks similarly but since he and the Chinese Communist Party need Russia, it can be overlooked for now. Plus, those stories didn’t really affect the Chinese people, domestically. A benefit of state-controlled media. And that’s what counts because morale control is necessary. Kim Jong-un, the Supreme Leader of North Korea, for example, launches ballistic missiles against the will of the United Nations, and most of the world, in part to lift the morale of his people.
For President Putin, the stars had finally aligned. Understanding the great divisions in America that were exacerbated by COVID-19 coupled with the significant rise in inflation, I think he was presented with a rare opportunity to make a mark on the world at, arguably, one of Capitalism’s lowest points in the recent past to push forward the Communist agenda. President Putin also has showed that he’s leading the charge and not President Xi. Russia controlled the headlines during China’s Olympics. Russia has taken the initiative to invade Ukraine before an attempt by China to invade Taiwan. Russia is the Alpha.
Looking at how supply chain issues destabilized world economies, imagine what hyperinflation will cause. People are feeling the pinch of inflation, but its greatest impact is on lower income households. When that hits the middle class hard, mindsets will change. The American way of life will prevail but not without damage being done. As for other countries, especially the more economically sensitive ones, who knows. Considering there’s neither a real threat to the survival of Russia or China nor President Putin or President Xi, there’s more to gain than to lose. They’re the underdogs. God save us all if World War III broke out.
The Communist brotherhood has put America and much of the world into a lose-lose situation. If the stock market hasn’t tipped you off, we’re on the brink of a recession. Regardless of whether the Fed raises interest rates or keeps them steady, or reduces bond purchases or maintains its outlays, or some combination of both, a recession is the likely outcome and then a depression could result. I doubt lowering interest rates and/or increasing bond purchases are tools that the Fed can use to save the economy when inflation is uncontrollable. A wartime economy during a recession/depression, possibly. Causing a hopefully controlled, immediate recession to cooldown inflation might be preferable.
Is the Communist brotherhood a threat? Yes. Any idiot wielding a weapon is a threat. Communists, like President Putin and President Xi, make big, seemingly calculated statements and actions with authority but still lack control of their countrymen. Cheating happens in American sports. Whereas we mostly watch it for their entertainment value though, Russian and Chinese people take pride in their athletes as we once did decades ago. They represent their nations and nations’ progress. Yet, given the societal importance of their athletes and the international reputation of their country, Russia, for example, still can’t control cheating.
Neither am I an expert on geopolitics, an economist nor an historian. I’m just a guy trying to brainstorm what might happen to make the best, most informed decision possible for you and your mother.
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